The Future of Music

I’ve been a long time fan of Bob Lefsetz, who has a newsletter that is read by more people associated with the music industry in the world. Everyone and anyone, his fan base is incredible.  In his latest post, he’s written an exceptional overview and painting of the future of choosing, listening and enjoying music.  If you’re into this sort of stuff, it just doesn’t get any better than this.

From Bob Lefsetz:

 Just like you tossed your 8-tracks and cassettes, you’ll get rid of your MP3s, all your iTunes purchases, kaput, evaporate, just like that. It will happen when you get a new computer, which isn’t as frequent as before, but the truth is we’re moving to flash storage and it’s more expensive and you get less and you haven’t got room for your music files, never mind the inclination to listen to them.

Just like you wanted the biggest iPod but are satisfied with the smallest iPhone, you won’t find it necessary to pay extra for more flash storage even when the price comes down, whether it be in computers or mobile handsets. Because everything will be stored in the cloud or delivered to you when requested.

Hoarding MP3s is like hoarding hieroglyphics, who wants an ancient format no one can read? Especially when it’s just bits and bytes!

Eighteen years, that’s how long a format lasts.

LPs… 1964, the advent of the Beatles, to 1982, the advent of the CD.

The CD… 1982 to 2000, when usurped by the MP3.

MP3s? By 2018 they’re HISTORY!

2. Plays will be the metric.

Just like radio shifted to spins, how much someone listens to your music will be the only thing that’s important, furthermore, listens get you paid.

This will be a revolution, a good one, the SoundScan era is history, sales charts make no sense. Companies ramp up the publicity for an initial sales week that media publicizes, all to do it again the next week for new records. This reduces the chances of something sticking. Whereas when plays becomes the metric, we’ll instantly see what has stuck. Just because it was released last week or six or nine months ago, it won’t matter, because we’ll see people are actually playing it. And that which is heavily-hyped but left unplayed…beware.

3. Media will promote spins.

Yahoo already lists the top ten Spotify tracks every week. In the future, a media outlet will still talk about number one, but not how many albums or digital singles were sold, but how many plays it got. It’ll be like YouTube, on Spotify there’s a counter too, you can see how you stack up. Suddenly data is not hidden, it’s there for all to see. And the truth will be that the blockbuster era will continue. We’ll see huge winners and a sea of also-rans. We’ll be on the outlook for that which is making huge gains. It will all be based on data, as opposed to today’s smoke and mirrors.

4. Payouts will be high.

It’s all about scale. Once we wean everyone from MP3s, once everybody pays for music, whether it be monthly or baked into the subscription, a huge pot of money will be generated, 69% of which will go to rights holders. So, if you’ve got an ancient, poor-paying label deal, the company will get most of it. If you’re striking a new major label deal…think about what you’re giving up, recorded music revenue, in exchange for the company’s ability to spend and muscle and make you a star. You can stay independent and keep all the money, but your chance of rising above is diminished, especially in this world of overwhelming input.

5. It’ll be mobile.

Spotify develops for mobile first. Not only will you have a smartphone, chances are it will be large, because it will be your primary screen, where you shop and dial-up your music, you want to be able to see and make sense. Think of your handset as the new iPad, just a little bit smaller.

6. Discovery will be in the Spotify app.

It’s all about the real estate, you don’t want to jump around. You’ll roam around Spotify the same way you roamed around the record store, but inventory will be much greater and access will be instant. If your company is a recommendation engine not aligned with a streaming service, good luck!

7. Pandora survives.

Or is bought and merged. But if it survives, its impact will be marginalized over time, because we live in an on demand world, the future is on demand, not wait and see. Pandora is too valuable to be purchased by Spotify. And it’s hobbled not only by royalty payments, but the fact it’s not worldwide. In other words, you might love Pandora the way you loved your BlackBerry, as in temporarily.

8. iHeart Radio stalls.

It’s not on demand. As for listening to your terrestrial station on the Internet… Pandora eclipses that, there are fewer commercials. Clear Channel’s digital play is not revolutionary enough, it was billed as a Pandora killer when Pandora was not the correct target.

9. Passive listening.

That’s what radio is. Spotify’s got a component. There’s a market for that. But not run by algorithms, but people. Which is why SiriusXM is so successful, all those people paying to get rid of commercials on their music stations (as well as Howard Stern.) In other words, Clear Channel is in a bind. Promoting a legacy system without legs. If you don’t think terrestrial radio will be diminished, you’re still listening to AM.

10. You will share Spotify playlists.

We live in a sharing economy. You’ll send songs. This is a good thing, this is how we break bands. And inboxes won’t be cluttered-up with MP3s, waiting for them to download, eating up space, getting lost in spam folders, however expect to be spammed by wannabes, just like they have done forever in the Internet era.

11. Sound quality will improve.

It’s all about bandwidth. And LTE is faster than many people’s home connection. And mobile providers are already pondering an even faster generation. The faster the bandwidth, the fatter the pipe, the higher the quality. Remember, there was no YouTube before broadband.

12. Data charges are irrelevant.

Not only did T-Mobile just obviate them for music services, Spotify synchs all playlists so no signal is needed, the “streams” live on your handset, just like files. So even if you’ve got no cell signal, you’ve got your music.

13. It’s not about Spotify.

It’s about streaming. Google’s new service could be the winner, but let’s hope not, because it pays less. Or maybe a reinvigorated Apple Beats. One thing is for sure, one service will dominate, it’s where we’ll all go, because we want to share, we don’t want to be left out. So you might like Rdio or Deezer, but if you send a link and someone can’t play it, that’s not gonna work.

14. Exit strategy.

Just like Apple bought Beats, Facebook or Google or Amazon or even Microsoft might by Spotify. Don’t forget, Google bought Motorola and Microsoft bought Nokia. If you can’t compete, you buy.

15. Bottom line.

Don’t get depressed, it’s all about the music. Make a good tune and these services are your bitch. They allow you to reach the whole world instantly. And if you haven’t, maybe you weren’t meant to. Maybe you’re not that talented, maybe you make niche music. But as people see what succeeds, it will spark their creativity. They’ll see the high standard, they’ll see what’s left field that breaks through. The only problem we have today is everyone’s got a voice, and those who don’t win complain, whereas we didn’t used to hear from them. Ignore them. Focus on the winners. Spread the word about them. And know that if your identity is based on liking something no one else does, chances are you’re going to live a very lonely life.


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OneRepublic concert last night took me by surprise:  the musicianship of these guys is off the charts.  Front man Ryan Tedder has incredible pipes, of course, particularly on the top half of his register; but he also really good in front of a piano.  Other highlights were bassist Brent Kutzie, whose work with an electric cello was terrific, and guitarist Zach Filkins, who has spent a lot of time in Barcelona and played a very cool flamenco and later looping solo performance.  DMB tonight! 

Andre 3000 and and Big Boi on sort of a reunion tour of OutKast, after a seven year hiatus; last night at Summerfest.

Bruno!  After taking a respite from concerts last year, we are back in stride.  So tonight, at Summerfest, it begins: his voice is so strong, even with all the touring, and his band is impressively tight.  Tons of energy, a great show.  Next up:  time for a little Hey Ya.

Hmmm...what to make of:

 

And then how about this - all the states that are darker orange have by far the worst public schools in America (based on all kinds of criteria):

And tangentially tied to where I’m going with this, comes this new report:

Admittedly, I don’t hear this as much as I did a few years ago, but the next time I hear someone talk about American ‘exceptionalism’, I am going to remember this.

OK, my first post involving politics in months is finished. 

Most fun time this past weekend, with Doug!

Two days in Prague with perfect weather and we tried to make the most of it!  Most of the photos are of Prague Castle.

Last 24 hours:  Budapest and Prague.

It’s a fun day when you get a new life bird (Cassin’s Vireo - ABA #678) in the morning, and then play Spyglass in the afternoon.  Next day Mark and I played Pebble Beach for the first time - great weather, highlighted by fellow foursome member Larry from Ottawa getting a hole-in-one on the famous 17th par three!  Later that day went to startup seed accelerator YCombinator ‘Demo Day’ in Mountain View, where company I’ve invested in, LivBlends, successfully pitched.

Wrapping up a six day birding trip that started last Wednesday in Florida and then continued in Texas.  Six new birds!  One - Shiny Cowbird - which I re-found in Everglades National Park, was posted last Thursday on NARBA (North American Rare Bird Alert).  And yesterday, after hiking three miles up the Chisos Mountains in Big Bend National Park, I finally (and I mean finally) found a singing Colima Warbler.  This is the only place in the U.S. to find this bird.  In the bins for four minutes, scavenging for food.  Pretty darn special.  I’ve waited years to find the right time to make this trip; it’s been 42 years since I last made a trip to Big Bend, with two high school friends in the summer after we graduated.  Other photos:  an incredible full double rainbow north of Marathon, Texas, which took place after driving through a thunderstorm I will never forget; another photo of Big Bend - April is a great time to visit, it’s greened up because it’s Spring (the rain the night before also helped).  At Big Bend:  roadrunners, a tarantula, a bear sighting at the beginning of my hike (oh, that’s just great, I laughed, and started to then seriously clap every couple of minutes on the ascent),  a light-colored, greenish  Mottled Rock Rattlesnake that I got within 4 feet as I was coming down the trail at a pretty quick clip and wondering ‘What is that rattling sound?’ - I’m not kidding!  Full stop in my tracks.  I have it on video slithering away!   And last photo:   at church on Sunday!   

New startup I’ve invested in, now based in San Francisco.

Here’s a video on ABC BirdTape that I had produced under ETR Group; please share with friends and family.  Thanks. 

Great one minute video produced by an old childhood friend and fellow camper at Burgundy Wildlife Camp, John Feldman (Hummingbird Films)

Ecuador trip wrap-up:  162 species, most of them ‘lifers’; 29 species of hummingbirds; 5 species of antpittas.  Here are a few more of my favorite photos (double click on the hummers and see the incredible feather detail)!

Day 2 in Ecuador was a trip to even higher ground (12,500’) to festivities celebrating the newly created Anstisanilla Reserve, partially funded by the American Bird Conservancy (ABC).  These grasslands and cliffs are the primary breeding areas of the Andean Condor.  Photos that follow include: the attendees of the ‘ribbon-cutting’, including local caballeros; a very inquisitive Andean Fox - check out his bushy tail - wondering what smelled so good (beef shish kebabs on a grill); a young Andean Condor that flew right over us on the bluff; and a pair of very rare Andean Ibis.

This is a hummingbird?  Yep!  Appropriately named Sword-billed.

Greetings from Ecuador, after a day of birding at the Yanacocha Reserve, a high altitude (10,000’) cloud forest outside of Quito, on the west slope of the Ecuadorean Andes.  A few other birding highlights pictured here: Masked Flowerpiercer and Great Saphirewing.  Off to high elevation  grasslands tomorrow.

A Still Time

It’s been awhile since making the trek down the bluffs in the snow, sub-zero wind chills and all.  But today, there was a stillness on the beach that was…special.  And with the temperature approaching 40 degrees, that was just icing on the cake.  The little black specks in the water above my head are a pair of Greater Scaup and a Common Goldeneye.

2013 Customer Service Awards

Best Service: Southwest Airlines

You expect to get outstanding service at Four Seasons, and with rare exceptions, you do.  Most of my experiences with 5-star service providers in 2013 were great, so no real issues or callouts.

But in 2013 I interacted a lot with one decidedly ‘coach’ class service provider with generally surprisingly good results:  Southwest Airlines.

Milwaukee’s airport and the travel routes it now provides is a shell of what once was.  Mismanagement and external market forces drove Midwest Express Airlines over the edge, and since then, the airline situation has only worsened:  far fewer choices, and limited non-stops to where you’re often going. 

Let’s face it, flying coach is a cattle call; you can’t get around that.  But with Southwest, nearly all the flight attendants, gate attendants, maintenance guys and pilots seem uniformly committed to making the trip as convenient and efficient as possible.  The team is pleasant, and they’re more friendly than not.  They approach their jobs with a sense of purpose.

And for whatever reason, that positive energy is picked up by the passengers.  I can’t explain it, but it sure seems like most everyone on the plane are decidedly in a better frame of mind than on competitor’s flights.

Worst Service:  Tie - Burke & Herbert Bank Web Site; Baggage Claim at Milwaukee Airport

Without a doubt, the worst customer service experience I’ve had in 2013 involves trying to use the web site of my Mom’s  bank in Virginia, Burke & Herbert.  This isn’t just one awful visit; it’s virtually every time I go to the site.  It is shocking that a web site can be so glitchy and so frustrating.  And the people you call to try to resolve issues are often nice, but seemingly incapable of dealing with it.  They seem numb to it all.

Mr. Burke & Mrs. Herbert, whoever you are, how you get away with this is a mystery to me.  It’s 2014 and your website works like it was built in 1995.

Equally frustrating, on over a dozen occasions in 2013, is the crazy long times it takes for baggage on an incoming flight to arrive at baggage claim at Milwaukee Airport.  Always, and I mean always, it takes more than 40 minutes after arriving at the gate. Talk about being numb to the situation - the people at the customer service office by the carousels are unapologetic and unsympathetic.

There is a vibe about this consistently horrendous service that for whatever the root causes (understaffing, no doubt), the people involved in this simply don’t care anymore, if ever, and have given up.  But what is fascinating about this is the willingness for so many passengers, weary from a long flight, to tolerate such incredibly poor service.  Yes, I have the patience of a five year old, and yes, patience is a virtue so chill out Jeff, and all that, but I sometimes I feel like I’m the only one going to the small office there and asking the person what the heck is going on.  

This relates back to a truth in my previous book that remains as accurate as ever:

The amount of mini-screwups that occur during the process of interacting with people, purchasing things, communicating with service providers… whatever, is absolutely staggering.

And somehow, sadly, over time we have become accustomed to customer service levels that are now marginal, and often downright shitty. We’ve gone from doctors making house calls to now being in a crowded waiting room for an hour.

All of this adds up… it impacts your life… and I maintain that it’s tied to the fact that so many people don’t enjoy their jobs and don’t produce the desired results.

Sure, on this point you may want to say to me, “Hey, lighten up,” but I think you’d be missing the point. Staying on top of coffee orders, food orders… whatever, requires a certain skill set that is not so easy. If you’re going to be really efficient with these jobs, you need to have your act together.

Now, having just dumped on the working masses for the last several pages, I must also point out that an 80/20 rule applies here.*   They’re the 80%. But there is about 20% of exceptionalism out there in the workplace.

* The 80/20 is admittedly arbitrary, but the ratio is about right to make the point.

Rusinow, Jeff (2011-06-15). What I Really Think: The Business Chapters. ETR Publishing Group, LLC. Kindle Edition.

Photo:  Arizona Dessert, Spring, 2013