Sorry, a couple other things!

I promise this won’t become what’s happening to a dear friend on his Facebook page: a series of post election rants and screeds…..oh wait, his guy LOST!  My friend is reeling from the smack down, truly sad to see.  He is a highly respected professional fee guy, and he makes in ONE HOUR more than what someone on minimum wage makes IN A WEEK.  His own little pity party about takers and makers.  His anger, his upset, his angst, his unravelling….like I said, really sad, unbecoming stuff.

One other thing: tied to the Fox News Fear Machine, non-Jewish Fox viewers must be shocked to learn that over 70% of Jewish voters nationwide supported President Obama on Election Day!  And 64% of Jews had an unfavorable view of Romney!

Amazing how all the non-Jews on Fox News for months leading up to the Election were so incredibly critical and attacking of President Obama on his positions near and dear to Israel.  They just pilloried him.  Jews hardly considered Obama weak on Israel.

The more you get into the election returns, the more you see that this was an unmitigated disaster for Team Red.  Nothing worked, except fire up the angry aging white guy in lake country and at country clubs.  Karl Rove completely struck out (as Richard Viguerie said and any other serious business guy out there must logically think, Rove “would never be hired to run or consult on a national campaign again”).  In any kind of business, those kind of terrible results are fireable. The ROI was a complete debacle.     

Or how about Megyn Kelly asking Rove on Election Night if he was using “math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better?”  Oh my God, could it have gotten any more pathetic?  That 40 minutes on Fox while they allowed Karl Rove to control their calling of President Obama’s re-election, and Kelly’s excruciating walk down the halls to their stats team that told them Obama had a 99.5% chance of winning  when they had earlier called Ohio will go down in television and political history as one of the all time FAILS, ever.  EVER.

And the circular firing squad has begun.  Anyone see Steve Schmidt on ‘Meet The Press’ today? This guy is sharp.  He gets it. 

OK, I’m done.  Or at least I think I am!

Allen Stone in Milwaukee last night

These guys are just terrific (I’m partial, of course)!  They’re on the final leg of their current U.S. tour, then off to Europe for a couple more weeks of touring.  They will be soon announcing the date they’ll be playing on Ellen DeGeneres.  I took this photo during a slow song; Allen is in constant motion during the fast ones, my iPhone shots were a complete blur!

So What Did We Learn? #2 - Blind Rage & Hate is a Losing Strategy

The degree of sheer, unfiltered hate that was directed at President Obama in this last election cycle was striking in the way the ‘fringe’ of the Republican Party was embraced by conservative media outlets, particularly Fox News.  And without question that vitriol, that sheer disgust for President Obama, was manifested in the way some (and certainly not all) of my Republican friends behaved these past couple of years.  Birds of a feather flock together, and when you were around them yet were the lone supporter of Team Blue, let me tell you, it’s been no fun.

Oh how I long for the old days when I could have good-natured banter about politics with my golf buddies who happened to be Republicans.  Today, that’s near impossible.  They just hate the guy.  It’s visceral.  So many of those guys, who were genuinely moderate say 10 years ago, have gone to a darker place, in my view.   But if you are constantly exposing yourself to the incessant drum beat that Barack Obama is evil on Fox News, you can sadly understand how it happens.

I read the Facebook posts of some of my Republican friends and the hate toward President Obama just oozes from their sentences.  There is so much that I don’t like about Mitt Romney and what he believes, but I don’t come close to hating the guy. 

For Fox News to allow birthers and crazies like Donald Trump and Dick Morris and countless others to be so prominent in their broadcast is a great example of how Team Red really screwed up.  Team Obama would NEVER, EVER allow those kind of guys to dominate air time on liberal or 'middle road’ media outlets.   They don’t think like that.  They are much, much smarter than that:  they knew they already had the base wrapped up.  Why would you adopt a strategy so seething with blind rage and hate and think it wouldn’t totally turn off independents?  It makes absolutely no sense.

And you know what happened?  That sheer hate that was so heavily promoted by Fox and others fired up the Republican base BIG TIME.  Yard signs went up at a frenetic pace around the country, and non-statistical oriented pundits like Peggy Noonan took note and tried to quantify that observation into a possible Romney win.  No question, the AGING WHITE GUY WAS FIRED UP.

But it had the opposite effect on the uncommitted, female, independent, Latino, young vote.

To my Republican friends, the reason so many of you are in total shock today is that if you always listen or read these media outlets, and wake up every morning watching the trio of Steve Doocy, Getchen Carlson and Brian Kilmeade (Do you really, truly think their reporting is fair and balanced? No you don’t!), you sort of have drunk the Kool-Aid and been in a reality distortion field.  You were told over and over that Romney was going to win, and implicit in their reporting was the underlying vibe that it was really OK to hate President Obama.

Blind rage and hate is a losing strategy.  It will fire up your base, but it will really turn off a HUGE part of the electorate.  And let’s not forget how it fired up Team Blue!  Trust me, their internal polls for months were telling them that the 'hate Barack’ strategy was going to backfire.  They were clearly concerned about all the attack ads in the last week of the campaign (unknown territory for them, compared to 2008); but they knew the real mean-spirited stuff was a complete turn-off to so many that weren’t already sold on Romney.

So What Did We Learn? #1 - Hail Nate!

For those of you that know me, I have been a disciple of Nate Silver and his 538.com, since the Spring of 2008, when my son Brent told me about this guy who was just nailing the projections of the Hilary/Barack primaries.  He is brilliant.  And he’s incredibly right.  I started asking Team Obama in Chicago about their thoughts about Nate starting in the early days of the first presidential campaign.  The shift, from David Plouffe being pretty darn dismissive of Nate when we first spoke in 2008, to a clear respect and a sincere acknowledgement of his skills from David Simas over these past few months, has been pretty cool to see.

Nate has been my ‘rock’ and go-to guy over these past several months.  I have been way too consumed by all the numbers and polls; I have watched them daily.  I could see momentum shifts, particularly following the first debate, which was an unmitigated disaster for the President (more on this in a future post).  Like you, I also saw all the media spin, the pundit bullshit, the insane attempt at the idea of 'false balance’ with the networks, and in particular, a few pollsters and one network in particular that were incredibly off-the-mark. In retrospect, many of them look like Idiots.

Nate was mocked (even by Joe Scarborough) when he was predicting that Barack had a 80% chance of winning the Electoral College in the days leading up to the Election.  I mean, just pilloried.  Well, guess what:  NATE SILVER NAILED THE PROJECTIONS!  It’s just amazing and a real tribute to his skills to now visit the 538 site and see his projected state by state STATISTICAL projections.  I mean, it’s unreal how well he projected all this. 

In the meantime, Republicans were incessantly talking about 'skewed’ polls and that state polls were statistically wrong!  Do you see, in retrospect, what was going on here? When Team Red doesn’t like the facts, on basically anything, well, a huge percentage of the party, as part of the herd instinct, they just deny them.  Or awkwardly 'explain’ them away?  HA!

Yeah, funny thing about statistics, and little things like facts.  If you don’t embrace them, eventually they are going to come back and bite you.  Just like denying in the 1970’s that the science of cigarette smoking caused lung cancer (I remember it well - reminds me very much of current day science denialists: that climate change/global warming does not cause major changes in weather patterns).

Fox News attempted to shill the idea that the race was razor thin close, by relying on both certain pollsters who did a terrible job and letting Karl Rove set the agenda (and CONTROL their calling of the election - a later post on that!) did a terrible disservice to all you Republicans rooting for Governor Romney.  They set you guys up big time; no wonder why so many of you are in denial and shock today.

By being involved and supportive of Team Obama, one thing I’ve learned is that the inner circle is no fu@@ing nonsense. They are methodical, they are tenacious, and they believe in facts and statistics.  They would never, ever let a Scott Rasmussen blow smoke up the ass of their base about how well their guy was doing.  

Speaking of Rasmussen, his polling 'results’ were an absolute disgrace - his house effect was nearly ALWAYS 2.5 - 3 HUNDRED BASIS POINTS!  A little helpful safety tip to my Republican friends:  if you keep letting guys like Scott Rasmussen (or even Gallup, which used to be a great polling company and now is a complete disgrace as well) drive your polling 'stats’ and the spin of how things are going, you guys are going to continue to get screwed.  Yesterday, Rasmussen had the gall to say that “in general, the results were pretty good.”  

WHAT?  You have to be an idiot to believe that.  Rasmussen’s last poll on Monday reported that Romney was going to win the popular vote by 1%.  OBAMA WON BY 2.7%!  And Rasmussen’s calls in the swing states WERE NEARLY 100% WRONG!  Pretty good?

I have followed every poll religiously over the past 60 days, both national and state.   Like anything else, when you 'study’ a lot, you start to learn something.  And the big teachable moment here is that Nate Silver is my hero.  He kept me calm when things weren’t looking so good in the mainstream media, and when I started to get sucked into the other stuff I was seeing and hearing.

Hail Nate!  

Photos from the last 24 hours in Chicago

First, some photos from the last 24 incredible hours:

In the Boiler Room at the Fairmont Hotel in Chicago, where Team Obama was set up; I got to ask head pollster David Simas, at 4 p.m about Pennsylvania, to which he said (paraphrasing) “You can’t come into a state like this in the last week, throw $15 million at it and have a couple airport rallies, and expect to change things….a complete Hail Mary.” Calm confidence.  A good sign about how the night was going to play out:

There were celebrities everywhere - riding the trolleys to McCormick Place, going through security, sitting at tables waiting for the results, just like everyone else.  Only photo I took (Jen forbid me from taking any more!) was of Elizabeth Shue:

This victory was so incredibly sweet.  VERY big for Team Blue, and everything it stands for:

In the main arena, before the President arrived to give his election victory speech (video in a later post):

After his speech, at around 1:30 a.m., the President and First Lady came to the NFC Room and thanked us (video of his remarks to follow):

It doesn’t get any better than this.  24 hours later, I’m still getting choked up thinking about this victory and soaking it in.

Scotland Golf

Finishing up a trip that today brought us to the Old Course at St. Andrews. Where it all began in the early 1400’s.  What started as a brisk yet somewhat sunny day…

… by the 13th hole became 2-3 club windy with rain:

40 front, 46 back.  Had to get in line at 4:30 a.m. to make sure I got a tee time (last one of the day).  Live and learn on that little issue.

Other courses we played included Turnberry:

Gleneagles:

Aberdeen:

And tomorrow………Carnoustie!

Dublin

Two days at a place I’ve never been.  It’s terrific: great restaurants, great vibe, and of course, pubs everywhere.  Walking the streets of Dublin on a cool, crisp morning, the presence of Guiness is everywhere:

A trip to the country, not far from the city, is Wicklow’s Glencree Valley (where ‘Braveheart’ was filmed), with it’s bogs and wide vistas, and the Wicklow Mountains:

For lunch, had to go with the Irish stew:

One of the most famous monastic ruins, in Glendalough:

Recently

Most warblers have passed through, but Cape Mays continue to stand guard and enjoy the jelly!  First it was a pair of Black-throated Blue Warblers that discovered the sweet stuff and made dozens of trips; now over the last 10 days, hundreds of visits by Cape Mays to the feeder; some get quite comfortable with me up close with camera:

Allen Stone opening up for Dave Mathews Band in Irvine, California:

Meeting with President Obama in Milwaukee:

Continuation of my cataloging of all dishes involving calamari (this one at Mosaic in Laguna Beach)! 

Costa Rica Re-cap

It is difficult to watch a pair of Great Green Macaws in a full 30-second flyover, a straight line in perfect formation, and not think that you are the most blessed person on the planet to have witnessed such an incredible event!


 The Great Green Macaw was one of six parrot species we were lucky to see during our trip to Costa Rica.  We also saw eleven species of hummingbirds at various elevations, with such magical names like Crowned Woodnymph, Red-footed Plumeleteer, Purple-throated Mountain-gem, and Green-crowned Brilliant!  Here are some photos from Google Images:




 

I have been on the board of the Tirimbina Biological Reserve and Lodge in Costa Rica, which has been managed over the years by Lynde Uhlein and her staff at Milwaukee-based Brico Fund and other supporters primarily in Wisconsin, since the Milwaukee Public Museum’s finances imploded and they had to jettison their precious Costa Rican asset.  Lynde Uhlein stepped up and infused a lot of her money to build infrastructure and keep the place running.  It is now a world class research facility with a well-maintained lodge with extremely fast wi-fi (wow, I wish all the high-end hotels I stay at around the world could say that).


To get to the rain forest, you need to cross high above a river on an 800’ long suspension bridge, Costa Rican’s longest (here is a photo with George Fenwick, the Executive Director of the American Bird Conservancy):

 


Home to mot-mots and trogons and cuckoos and Great Tinamou (we saw this very elusive bird for over five minutes feeding alongside a stream), Tirimbina is a birder’s treasure spot.  It is also the place where visitors can go and learn about cacao and how chocolate is made (lots of sampling, I might add)!  And see a viper on the walking trail!

Recently, at my suggestion and with The Brico Fund and ABC’s approval following appropriate due diligence, Tirimbina’s ‘oversight‘ has been transferred from Brico to ABC.  All signs point to a very successful new partnership, which may even result is greater funding of Tirimbina through donations by individuals and groups made more tax efficient through ABC.  The Rusinow Family Foundation just made such a contribution.

A group photo on the last day of the trip, at El Socorro Private Reserve, run by a wonderful farmer named Jose who has a passion for conserving the land of his forefathers (with George; Carlos, the manager of Tirimbina; and Julio, a long-time birder well known in local birding and conservation circles):

Bats, Howler Monkeys, Bullet Ants & Toucans!

Day Two at the very cool and incredibly bio-diverse Tirimbina Preserve.  Highlights: hearing howler monkeys near the research station; White Tent Bats, hanging underneath the folded down leaf of a Heliconia plant:

It’s been a long time since I used a digital camera to ‘digiscope’ and take photos from a scope, but we tried it using my iPhone and was able to take a decent shot of a Red Poison Dart Frog:

 

Wonder how a Bullet Ant got it’s name (hint: if you get stung by one it feels like…):

And finally, of course, the birds! Toucans and hummingbirds everywhere!  Best hummer of the day was a Purple-crowned Fairy (photo taken from Google Images):

Costa Rica

Spending the weekend in Costa Rica birding and visiting some beautiful sites (below).  This waterfall is near the hardest hit area of the major 2008 earthquake.  More to follow.

Very, very promising possible new treatment for Alzheimer's

It’s fair to say that progress these last few years in treating Alzheimer’s has been, in a word, disappointing.  It’s a huge problem that is about to get even worse with Baby Boomers entering their 60’s and 70’s, unless researchers make inroads in how to reduce or maintain the build-up of beta amyloid proteins (or what is often called ‘plaque’) that takes place in the brain in people with the disease.

The results of a new study, while 'small’, is the most encouraging I have ever heard about.  The results of a larger study will be released in mid-2013.  This one could be a game changer.

Below is an excellent overview, written by Dr. Mark Niedfeldt in his monthly newsletter to his patients.  Dr. Niedfeldt is an outstanding concierge doctor that’s part of ModernMed and who practices in Mequon, Wisconsin.  He has agreed to let me show it here:

Possible Alzheimer’s Treatment

Treatment prevented progression of the disease 

This is a very interesting, and potentially promising small study of a treatment which seemed no halt the cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease.Three years of treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG, GammaGard) prevented further cognitive decline in patients with Alzheimer’s disease.

 

Summary of findings: 

  • As measured by multiple standard instruments – the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-Cog), the Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGIC) index, the Neuropsychiatric Inventory, and others – the four patients who received the full 36 months of treatment at 0.4 g/kg every 2 weeks showed no decline in scores, reported Norman Relkin, MD, of Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City.

  • The treatment was “generally well-tolerated” but did cause some adverse effects.

  • A phase III study with 390 patients is already nearing completion, with results expected by mid-2013

  • The rationale for IVIG in Alzheimer’s disease is that it contains antibodies against beta amyloid proteins and it also modulates immune function to reduce inflammation.

  • The current report covered a second open-label extension of an earlier placebo-controlled, double-blind trial that initially lasted 6 months, involving 24 patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease (baseline Mini-Mental State Examination scores of 14 to 26).

  • As a phase II study, it tested multiple doses and schedules.

  • Participants were allowed to receive an additional year of open-label treatment with IVIG. With continued favorable results – including inhibition of brain atrophy as well as cognitive protection – a second 18-month extension was offered, with 21 patients accepting. These included all 16 initially receiving IVIG and five of the placebo group.

  • The second extension essentially confirmed the earlier findings and showed that the benefits last 3 years.

  • Patients initially assigned to placebo showed continued decline in cognitive function, but there was “a bend in the curve” when they were switched to IVIG, reflecting a slowing in decline.

  • Pooled data for the 16 patients in the original IVIG groups showed a significant protective effect relative to the initial placebo group.  

  • The 3-year ADAS-Cog and CGIC scores in the four patients who received 0.4 g/kg every 2 weeks throughout the study were the same as at baseline. This is remarkable because untreated Alzheimer’s disease patients always show measurable decline in 3 to 6 months.

  • The author stated “if we have a patient who goes out to 18 or 24 months without changing, usually we begin to doubt that they have Alzheimer’s disease. If we have two patients like that in our practice, we begin to doubt our own diagnostic prowess. To have four patients… all of whom are effectively unchanged after 3 years, is a remarkable result.”

  • The findings were from very few patients, and therefore very preliminary. “It’s a very important point because this agent is in limited supply, and the indications for which it is approved, some of them represent disorders in which patients can only survive by getting this particular product. So we don’t want to bankrupt the available supplies."  

This preliminary study has gotten a lot of interest because it is really the first study that has shown promise in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. Anyone who has had a loved one with this disease understands the devastation it causes to the individual and their loved ones. Basically, the IVIG treatments seemed to halt the progression of the disease, at least over the short term. We don’t know what happens when people stop the infusions. We don’t know at which point it is helpful to use the infusion. Since this is a very small study, there are a lot of unanswered questions. Hopefully, the ongoing trial will give more information. With an incidence of 1 in 8 older Americans projected to have this disease at a cost of over $200 billion annually, certainly any treatment that could halt or slow the progress is potentially helpful. IVIG is a collection of antibodies naturally made by plasma cells in our bodies. It is formed by taking the IgG antibodies from over 1,000 donors and mixing them together. It has been used for immune deficiency disorders, inflammatory disorders and some acute infections. It works by suppression of harmful inflammation. There is a limited supply of IVIG and it is often used for life-threatening diseases.  

Again, this study demonstrates that inflammation in its many forms is harmful. Yet another reason to avoid it when ever possible through healthy diet and exercise.  


Relkin N, et al "Three-year follow-up on the IVIG for Alzheimer’s phase II study” AAIC 2012; Abstract P3-381.

Source: http://www.medpagetoday.com/MeetingCoverage/AAIC/33780

 

Here’s the video:

Letterman!

Brent and his band (Allen Stone) played on Dave Letterman tonight, and just nailed their song ‘Sleep’.  So much fun.  Photos (red-eye and all) after the show on the set, as well as us in Dave’s chairs!

Where do these guys breed?

Black-capped Petrel is a small seabird once widespread in the West Indies, but now considered endangered.  The bird is extremely nocturnal around it’s breeding grounds (probably to elude predators), usually on cliffs where they build their nests:

On pelagic boat trips off the coast of Cape Hatteras, Black-capped Petrels are regularly seen.  But scientists are uncertain where in the West Indies they are now breeding, other than a small area on the mountainous border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  The coast of Cuba or on another island?  Confirm where they are breeding and conservationists might have a chance to improve their chances for survival.

With the partial help from my family foundation and others, a project is underway by the folks at the American Bird Conservancy and supported by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service to try to find out where these birds breed.  

The key strategy to capture a petrel or two (or with great luck and skill, three or more!) involves deploying this custom-designed device which will float on the ocean near the boat: 

A mist net will span the distance between the vertical poles, and the birds will be hopefully attracted by throwing out chum.  Once captured, small and very light satellite trackers will be attached to the bird and they will be quickly released.  Imagine how cool it would be to track a Black-capped Petrel to their nesting grounds currently unknown to the birding and scientific community.

Storm petrels are considered more ‘skittish’ than other sea birds when it comes to approaching chum near a boat, so attempts to catch them and tag them is in the 'possible-probable’ spectrum that is, well, not ideal.  But it’s well worth giving it a try!

Originally intended to take place last week but put on hold due to inclement weather, Project Petrel (my name for this!) is now scheduled for August.

Good luck Mike and George!